TSTAR-02012020

2020年马来西亚展望：关键动态与政策简报

执行摘要

2020年是马来西亚开启新十年的关键之年，预计将迎来一系列深刻的政治、经济和社会变革。本年度的核心事件是亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会，这不仅是重大的地区性政治活动，也与总理敦马哈迪·穆罕默德向安华·易卜拉欣的权力交接时间点紧密相连。马哈迪已承诺交棒，但表示不希望在APEC峰会前进行，以免造成“干扰”。

经济方面，在应对国内外经济放缓的背景下，政府将实施多项旨在缓解民众生活成本压力的政策。其中包括在57个主要城市将最低月薪提高至1200令吉，以及将南北大道（PLUS）所有高速公路的过路费降低至少18%。此外，政府还将扩大mySalam和Peka40健康保障计划的覆盖范围，以惠及更多中低收入群体。

社会层面，多项新法规将全面生效，包括在餐饮场所全面执行禁烟令和禁用塑料吸管的规定，并强制要求汽车后座乘客系好安全带。与此同时，“2020马来西亚旅游年”活动将全面展开，目标是吸引3000万国际游客并创造1000亿令吉的旅游收入。这些多方面的举措共同构成了2020年马来西亚的发展蓝图，预示着一个充满机遇与挑战的年度。

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一、 政治与治理格局

APEC峰会与领导层交接

2020年马来西亚最重要的政治事件是主办亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会。这是马来西亚继1998年后第二次主办该峰会，当年同样由马哈迪在其首个总理任期内领导。

• 峰会规模：全年将在马来西亚五个城市举行超过120场会议，预计将有约16,000名代表出席。
• 峰会主题：“优化人类潜能，迈向共享繁荣的未来”（Optimising Human Potential Towards a Future of Shared Prosperity），重点关注推动贸易与投资、激励数字经济与技术，以及加强创新可持续性。
• 权力交接：APEC峰会与备受关注的总理职位交接紧密相关。马哈迪重申将信守承诺，把领导权交给人民公正党主席安华。然而，他明确表示不希望在11月峰会结束前进行权力更迭，因为他认为这会“造成干扰”。他表示：“就我而言，我会卸任并将接力棒交给他（安华）。如果人民不想要他，那是他们的事，但我会履行我的承诺。”

州选举与外部政治动态

• 砂拉越州选举：砂拉越州选举必须在2021年9月之前举行，因此有猜测认为选举可能会在2020年进行。砂拉越政党联盟（GPS）已表示正为捍卫其执政地位做准备。
• 国际影响：
  • 美国：美国总统唐纳德·特朗普因滥用权力和妨碍国会而面临弹劾，他将在参议院接受审判。分析人士认为，由共和党控制的参议院不太可能将他免职，但他将在2020年的连任竞选中背负弹劾的污点。
  • 新加坡：马来西亚的邻国新加坡很可能在2020年举行大选，观察家猜测选举或在2月预算案公布后举行。总理李显龙已表示这可能是他最后一次参选，副总理兼财政部长王瑞杰有望成为下一任总理。

法律与反腐改革

• 反贪会（MACC）权力加强：《马来西亚反贪污委员会法令》新增的第17A条款将于6月生效。该条款将赋予反贪会起诉商业实体（而不仅是个人）的权力。
• 废除强制死刑：预计废除强制死刑的法案将于3月在国会提呈。

二、 经济、旅游与文化发展

关键经济政策

面对国内外放缓的经济形势，政府推出了一系列旨在刺激经济和减轻民生成本的政策。

政策领域	具体措施
薪资与津贴	在57个城市和市议会，最低月薪将上调至1200令吉。公务员的生活津贴（COLA）每月增加50令吉。
税收	对外国公司的数字服务征收6%的税。
交通成本	南北大道（PLUS）所有高速公路的过路费预计降低至少18%。
生活援助	生活援助金（BSH）扩大覆盖范围，将月收入低于2000令吉的40岁以上单身人士纳入其中。
青年援助	向年满18岁且年收入低于10万令吉的马来西亚公民的电子钱包中存入30令吉，以鼓励电子支付。

旅游业与文化活动

• 2020马来西亚旅游年：这项为期一年的活动旨在提振旅游业，目标是吸引3000万国际游客，并实现1000亿令吉的旅游收入。旅游业者和相关机构正准备通过数字营销和社交媒体影响者等多种举措来推广国内热门景点。
• 联合国教科文组织世界图书之都：吉隆坡被命名为2020年世界图书之都，将从4月23日开始举办一系列特别活动。
  • 主题：“KL Baca”（吉隆坡阅读）。
  • 项目规划：计划包括建设一座图书城（Kota Buku Complex），为火车通勤者举办阅读活动，并为低收入地区的12个图书馆提供数字服务。
• 备受期待的电影：
  • 《夕雾花园》（The Garden of Evening Mists）：改编自马来西亚作家陈团英的同名小说。
  • 《瑞亚和最后的龙》（Raya and the Last Dragon）：首位源自东南亚的迪士尼公主。

三、 社会民生政策与法规

交通运输改革

交通领域将迎来多项重大变革，旨在提升安全性和市场竞争力。

• 电召摩托车试点：印尼公司Gojek和本地初创公司Dego Ride将在吉隆坡进行为期六个月的有限规模试点运营。
• 强制安全措施：自2009年起已成为强制性规定的汽车后座安全带使用规定将全面执行。此外，儿童安全座椅和巴士乘客安全带的使用也将全面强制执行。
• 区域枢纽建设：为了提升马来西亚作为区域交通枢纽的形象，交通部将举办首届吉隆坡国际物流与交通展览会（KiLAT）2020，预计将吸引来自东盟、美国、德国和英国等国家的参展商。

医疗保障体系扩展

• mySalam健康保障计划：
  • 覆盖范围扩大至中等收入群体，即年总收入高达10万令吉的马来西亚公民。
  • 符合资格的最高年龄从55岁提高到65岁。
  • 保障的严重疾病从36种增加到45种，并新增了脊髓灰质炎。
• Skim Peduli Kesihatan (Peka40)：
  • 符合资格的年龄从原来的50至60岁扩大至40岁及以上。

公共法规与执法

• 禁烟令：随着2019年教育期的结束，餐饮场所的禁烟令将从2020年起全面执行。违规吸烟者将面临最高1万令吉的罚款或两年监禁。
• 禁用塑料吸管：餐饮场所禁用塑料吸管的规定将全面生效。
• 打击非法外劳：“自愿遣返计划”（B4G）结束后，移民局将开始严厉打击非法外籍劳工，该特赦计划不会延长。

青年与教育援助

• 免费早餐计划：作为第一阶段，全国100所小学的学生将获得免费早餐。
• 青年住房计划：由国民储蓄银行（BSN）管理的青年住房计划截止日期从2020年1月延长至2021年12月。该计划通过国家按揭机构（Cagamas）提供10%的贷款担保，使借款人能获得全额融资，并在头两年提供每月200令吉的分期付款援助，名额限定为10,000个住房单位。

2020年重点活动与政策一览

重点活动与项目	政策与法规生效
亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会	57个城市的最低工资上调至1200令吉。
吉隆坡被命名为联合国教科文组织世界图书之都	全面执行餐饮场所禁烟令和禁用塑料吸管。
2020年东京奥运会与残奥会	强制要求汽车后座乘客系好安全带。
首届吉隆坡国际物流与交通展览会	对外国数字服务征收6%的税。
	南北大道（PLUS）过路费预计降低至少18%。
	Gojek和Dego Ride在吉隆坡进行电召摩托车试点。
	mySalam和Peka40健康保障计划扩大覆盖范围。
	移民局开始打击非法外籍劳工。
	MACC根据新法条款可起诉商业实体。
	为100所小学的学生提供免费早餐。

The challenges that lie ahead

A new year opens up new opportunities and a new set of trials

20120 What is in store for 2020 AH?M t ，

贝、景饮龄

V I S I O N

PETALING JAYA: Malaysians can expect many changes in 2020, as we embark on a new decade.

The biggest event on the nation's calendar is the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit.

The summit, which is scheduled to conclude in November, is signifi­ cant not only in terms of regiojial politics, but domestically as well, since it is linked to the expected premiership transition from incum­ bent Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

While reiterating that he will keep his promise to hand over the reins to Anwar, Dr Mahathir has said he does not want a leadership change before the Apec summit as it would be “disruptive”. “I made a promise to hand over and I will, accepting that I thought that a change immediately before the Apec summit would be disrup­ tive. “As far as I'm concerned, I'm step­ ping down and I'm handing the baton to him (Anwar). If people don't want him, that is their busi­ ness, but I will do my part of the promise," he had said earlier.

With Dr Mahathir's signalling the extension of his premiership beyond the two-year mark, antici­ pation is building up as many Malaysians wait with bated breath to see the leadership change finally take place.

The Apec summit will also be a high-profile affair, with Malaysia hosting it for the second time. The country last played host in 1998, also under the leadership of Dr Mahathir in his first tenure as prime minister.

About 16,000 delegates are expected to attend more than 120 meetings in five cities around Malaysia throughout the year.

With the theme “Optimising Human Potential Towards a Future of Shared Prosperity", the summit will focus on driving trade and investment, spurring digital econo­ my and technology and ramping up innovative sustainability.

Meanwhile, the Sarawak state election must be held before September 2021, leading some to speculate that it could take place this year.

The Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) state government said they are gearing up for the fight, as they defend their position against Pakatan Harapan and other politi­ cal parties.

Outside our borders The dynamics of Malaysia's polit­ ical scene will be crucial in deter­ mining the country's future as the leadership continues to navigate a dampened economy - both locally and globally.

However, external developments will also play a role in setting the

High-profile events

> Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit.

The meetings involving about 16,000 delegates will be held throughout the year until November. Tied to the summit is the expected premiership transition from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

> Unesco World Book Capital

Kuala Lumpur is named the World Book Capital, with special events starting in April.

> Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics 2020

Malaysian athletes will be representing the country in the major international sports events in July. 0 0 0

> Kuala Lumpur Internationa! Logistics and Transport Exhibition ,

The inaugural event in July is set to boost Malaysia's profile as a regional transport hub.

course. US President Donald Trump's impeachment, over charg­ es of power abuse and obstructing Congress, will see him facing a trial in the Senate.

Analysts say that the Republican- led Senate is unlikely to remove Trump from power, but they also noted that he would be bearing the stain of the impeachment in his 2020 re-election bid.

Closer to home, Malaysia's neigh­ bour across the Causeway is likely to call for a general election in 2020, with observers speculating that it could take place after the Budget is announced in February.

A signal that Singapore is heading to the polls includes the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee on Aug 1,2019.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who came to power in 2004, has indicated that the general election will likely be his last.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat is poised to be the next premier of the island-state in what is' largely seen as a transitional general election.

Tourism Besides the Apec summit, Malaysia is also expected to see an upsurge in tourist arrivals as Visit Malaysia 2020 will be underway (see graphics on page 5).

Tourism industry players and agencies are gearing up to make the best use of the year-long campaign, which targets 30 million interna­ tional tourist arrivals and RMlOObil in revenue.

Various initiatives, including the use of digital marketing and social media influencers, are in place to promote popular tourist sites in the country.

Kuala Lumpur has also been named the Unesco World Book Capital for 2020, which will see a variety of special events being held all year starting April 23.

Policies to take off in 2020

> Minimum wages will be increased to RMl,200 in 57 cities and municipality councils. > Plastic straw ban and smoking ban will take effect. > Car rear seat belts will be made mandatory. > A6% tax will be imposed on digital services from foreign companies. > TdII rates expected to be reduced by at least 18% across all PLUS Highways. > Indonesian bike-hailing firm Gojek and local startup Dego Ride will be operating in Kuala Lumpur

under a pilot project. > Health protection plan mySalam and Peka40 will be expanding its coverage > Immigration Department will start clamping down on illegal foreign workers > Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) will be able to prosecute business entities under a new clause in the MACC Act. > Free breakfast will be provided for primary school children in 100 primary schools nationwide.

Anticipated movies

> The Garden of Evening Mists, based on a book by Malaysian author Tan Twan Eng.

> Raya and the Last Dragon, the first Disney princess of South-East Asian origin.

With the theme “KL Baca (KL Reads)", there are plans imderway for the construction of a book city (Kota Buku Complex), a reading campaign for train commuters, and digital services for 12 libraries in low-income areas in the city.

Wages and allowances For ordinary Malaysians, a num­ ber of government policies to ease the burden of the rismg cost of liv­ ing is also set to take off in 202〇.

Minimum monthly wages will be bumped up to RM1,2OO in 57 cities and municipality councils across the country.

The cities that will be seeing an increase in minimum wage include Kuala Lumpur, Johor Baru, Petaling Jaya, Melaka, Penang, Kuala Terengganu, Ipoh, Miri and Kota Kinabalu.

The Bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH) aid will also cast its net wider, as single individuals aged above 40 earning than less RM2,000 monthly are now eligible for the scheme.

The Cost of Living Allowance for civil servants will also be increased by RM50 per month beginning this year.

Transport sector Several policy changes are also expected to shake up the transport industry in the country.

Indonesian-based mptorcy- de-hailing firm Gojek and local firm Dego Ride will also disrupt the mar­ ket with their entry into the Malaysian transportation scene this year.

The companies will be providing their services on a limited scale, with a six-month trial run in Kuala Lumpur.

Starting this year, the govern­ ment will also fully enforce its rul­ ing on the use of rear seatbelts in cars, which has been been manda­ tory since 2009.

The use of child seats and seat­

belts for bus passengers will also now be fully enforced.

Toll rates, meanwhile, are expect­ ed to be reduced by at least 18% across all PLUS highways, as annoimced in Budget 202〇.

The Transport Ministry also annoimced that the coimtry will be hosting the inaugural Kuala Lumpur International Logistics and Transport Exhibition (KiLAT) 2020, in a bid to boost Malaysia's image as a regional transport hub.

The expo, which will be held from July 8-11, is expected to draw exhibitors from Asean and other nations, such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Health coverage expands The mySalam health protection plan will also be expanded to include middle-income individuals; that.is, Malaysians with an annual gross income of up to RM100,000.

The maximum age of those eligi­ ble will also be increased to 65 from 55.

The scheme will also be expand­ ed to cover 45 critical illnesses and polio, instead of the current 36 crit­ ical illnesses.

Meanwhile, the Skim Peduli Kesihatan (Peka40) will also be expanded to include individuals from age 40, while previously it was only open for those aged 50 to 6〇.

Smoking and plastic straw bans Malaysians will also see the smoking ban being fully enforced this year, with the educational peri­ od officially ending in 2019.

This means that smokers who violate the ban face a fine of up to RM10,000 or two years' jail.

Eateries will also not use plastic straws as their ban will be fully enforced in 202〇.

Clampdown on illegal migrant workers The Immigration Department

will start clamping down on illegal foreign workers, as the deadline for the Back for Good (B4G) repatria­ tion programme ends.

There will be no extension of the amnesty programme, which allows illegal workers to return' to their countries volimtarily.

Legal matters The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) will be given more bite as a new clause in the MACC Act will give it prosecutorial powers over business entities, and not just individuals.

The newly introduced Section 17A of the MACC Act will take effect in June.

Meanwhile, the Bill to repeal the mandatory death penalty is expect­ ed to be tabled in Parliament in March.

Youth aid Free breakfast will be provided for primary school children, with the first phase of the programme implemented at 100 primary schools nationwide in January.

To encourage e-wallet use, the government will credit RM30 into the e-wallet of Malaysians aged 18 years and above, who earn an annual income below RM100,000.

The money which will be credit­ ed today will be valid for two months.

The government will also be giv­ ing a leg up to yotmg Malaysians by extendkig the deadline of the Youth Housing Scheme from January 2020 to December 2021.

The scheme, administered by Bank Simpanan Nasional, offers a 10% loan guarantee through Cagamas (the National Mortgage Corporation) to give borrowers access to full financing while pro­ viding a RM200 monthly instalment assistance for the first two years, limited to 10,000 home units.